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☆ From a 65% stock market crash to an imminent recession, here's a roundup of recent high-profile bear forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.

Persons: —, they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall

☆ Meet the doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"The one thing that our economy is going to be guaranteed is a wartime economy," Daniel told Business Insider in an interview. Interest in ultra-bearish takes on the market or the economy is on the up based on raw search data. Google searches for "stock market crash" have jumped 17% over the last quarter, while searches for "economic crash" have surged 15%, according to search analytics firm Glimpse. In both communities, users are sounding the alarm on all sorts of apocalyptic scenarios for the economy, with some predicting a stock market crash, housing market crash, or a total collapse of the US financial system. "Others may not be as lucky and could be constrained by them, and that could color their outlooks for the stock market and the economy."

Persons: —, Daniel, subreddit, Freddie Smith, Smith, aren't, Jonathan Rose, he's, Rose, there's, that's, Richard Sylla Organizations: Service, Genesis Gold, US, Northwestern Mutual, New York University Locations: Washington ,, Reddit, Florida

☆ The US may be 'sleepwalking' into a recession as cracks form in the labor market, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US could be "sleepwalking" into a recession, and signs of a downturn in key areas of the economy are starting to show, according to top economist David Rosenberg. That's a strong sign the economy is weakening, as manufacturing has only contracted on two occasions since 1997 without the economy later slipping into recession, Rosenberg noted. The 2-10 Treasury yield curve, a notoriously accurate recession indicator, has signaled a coming downturn since July 2022. The labor market is cracking, a slowdown in services activity is dragging on real-time growth, and forward looking financial signals still point to a coming slowdown," Rosenberg said. Rosenberg has been warning of a coming recession for months — and fears of a downturn are rising as investors anticipate the Fed keeping interest rates higher-for-longer.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, We're, That's Organizations: Service, Business, Treasury

☆ 'Something could break': The Fed risks recession, bank failures if it doesn't cut rates soon, economist Mark Zandi says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed risks "breaking" something in the economy if it delays rate cuts, according to Moody's Mark Zandi. Higher interest rates raise the odds of recession or bank failures, the economist warned. "If I were king for the day, I would really be cutting rates at this point," Zandi told Yahoo Finance. Speaking to Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Zandi warned of the consequences that could arise if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates over the next few months. Keeping rates at their current level raises the risk of recession, and could expose other cracks in the financial system, Zandi warned.

Persons: Moody's Mark Zandi, Zandi, —, Mark Zandi Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Moody's, Business

☆ The US and the West are facing the blowback of sanctions against Russia, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US miscalculated when it imposed harsh sanctions on Russia, and not only has Vladimir Putin's economy weathered the impact, but the West is facing the negative effects of the economic restrictions it imposed. Food and energy prices have soared since the West imposed sanctions on Russia, he noted partly because Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of oil and grain. Even the US dollar may end up worse off due to sanctions, Rubin said. Russia's trade with China, for instance, has nearly completely phased out the dollar, Russian officials said last year. "Sanctioning the ruble and confiscating a third of the Russian central bank's foreign reserves was supposed to cripple the Russian economy.

Persons: —, Vladimir, Jeff Rubin, " Rubin, crimp, Rubin, Putin Organizations: Service, Business, The Globe, Federal Reserve Board, Bank of Canada Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Russian

☆ Wheat prices have surged to 8-month highs amid global conflict and extreme weather
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Wheat prices have surged over the past month, climbing to their highest level since August. Higher wheat prices could stoke inflation, which is already running hotter than expected in the US. AdvertisementWheat prices have soared to their highest level in eight months thanks to a series of disruptions stemming from geopolitical conflict and extreme weather events. Russia has attacked key grain hubs in Ukraine, which caused wheat prices to skyrocket in 2023. Higher wheat prices could stoke inflation, which has clocked in hotter-than-expected in the US for the last three months.

Persons: — Organizations: stoke, Service, Bloomberg Locations: Chicago, Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Australia

☆ China is in the middle of its own retirement crisis as many older people cannot afford to stop working
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China is grappling with a retirement crisis as its population ages. According to OECD data, people over the age of 60 account for 13% of the country's workforce. China is anticipating another 300 million people to reach retirement age in the next 10 years. AdvertisementChina is going through a retirement crisis, with a significant portion of older people finding that they can't afford to stop working. That rivals the share of workers who are of retirement age in the US, where 10%-15% are aged 60 or older.

Persons: —, That's Organizations: Service, OECD, Reuters, Social Security, Budget, Trustees Locations: China

☆ Stock market today: Rally wavers but Dow edges higher for 6th straight session
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks wobbled on Wednesday but the Dow managed to notch its sixth winning session in a row. Tech stocks slid. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks were mixed Wednesday, with a sell-off in tech names causing a broader stock rally to waver after a streak of gains. Tech stocks slid, with downbeat Uber earnings sparking a 5.7% decline in the stock, while Intel fell after lowering revenue guidance for the quarter.

Persons: Dow, Uber, —, Wells Fargo Organizations: Tech, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Intel, Investors

☆ Stock market today: Indexes slide amid earnings-fueled tech selloff
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks dropped on Wednesday led by a selloff in the tech sector. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks slid on Wednesday, led by a sell-off in the tech sector as investors took in weak financials and earnings guidance. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement

Persons: Tesla, —, David Bahnsen Organizations: Intel, Reuters, Service, Nasdaq, Justice Department, New York Fed Locations: Here's

☆ Stocks are primed to tumble into a bear market as bullish investors have driven equities to 1929 extremes, famed fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market looks poised to fall from its extreme heights, legendary investor John Hussman said. Hussman said the stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash. The S&P 500 has broken a series of record highs this year, and has regained momentum in recent days after a lackluster month in April. AdvertisementHussman's firm is expecting the S&P 500 to underperform Treasury bonds by 9.3% a year for the next 12 years, based on his firm's internal metrics. Just 39% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next 6 months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, he's, — Organizations: Service, Investment Trust, Investor

☆ US inflation will soar if America doesn't undergo reindustrialization, investment manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Prices in the US could keep going up if the US doesn't "reindustrialize" its economy, Richard Bernstein said. The US has a "massive" trade deficit at a time when world trade is becoming fragmented, he noted. AdvertisementInflation will climb higher if the US economy doesn't reindustrialize its economy, according to investment manager Richard Bernstein. World trade has become more fragmented since the pandemic, and rising geopolitical tensions are a sign that the trend is continuing, he said. If it doesn't … we're going to have tremendous inflation here in the United States," Bernstein said to CNBC on Monday.

Persons: Richard Bernstein, —, Bernstein, Ken Griffin Organizations: US, Service, Commerce Department, CNBC, JPMorgan Locations: United States, America

☆ The Fed will spark an economic crash by delaying rate cuts, State Street equity research chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe economy is bound to enter a downturn if the Federal Reserve delays cutting interest rates, according to Marija Veitmane, the head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. The Wall Street vet warned of an impending economic crash if the Fed doesn't ease monetary policy soon. Higher interest rates are already taking a toll on economic strength, she noted, even if growth numbers looked fine last quarter. But the economy is already showing signs of strain from the burden of elevated interest rates, Veitmane warned. Markets are largely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates level at its next policy meeting.

Persons: —, Marija Veitmane, Veitmane Organizations: Service, Federal, Street Global Markets, Business, CNBC, AAA

☆ The US will see a recession by year-end that could spark a 30% drop in the stock market, legendary forecaster Gary Shilling says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.

Persons: Gary Shilling, —, overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury

☆ More Americans are feeling a six-figure salary can't afford them a middle-class lifestyle
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at people who feel like a middle-class salary doesn't equal a middle-class lifestyle . The big storyMiddle-class meltdownMichael Raines"Lately, I'm getting the feeling that I came in at the end. AdvertisementBusiness Insider's Jennifer Sor has a report on the people making over six figures who think the middle-class lifestyle they dreamed of isn't realistic for their salary . AdvertisementMarco Bottigelli/Getty, Yevgen Romanenko/Getty, Maskot/Getty, Tyler Le/BILet's address the elephant in the room: A six-figure salary is still a lot of money. Words like "AI Infrastructure" and "generative AI" point to more money heading to Nvidia for its popular H100 GPU chip.

Persons: —, Michael Raines, I'm, It's, Tony Soprano bemoaned, Jennifer Sor, Vincent, it's, Marco Bottigelli, Yevgen Romanenko, Tyler Le, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Warren Buffett, Buffett, Shruti Gandhi, Dalton Caldwell, James Cham, Hemant Taneja, Jenny Lefcourt, Nick Little, Sam Altman, Alice Zhang, Serena Williams, Jack Dorsey, Dorsey, — Dorsey, Bluesky, Alyssa Powell, Katie Notopoulos, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Pew Research Center, nab, Adobe, Wall, Hamptons, Nvidia, Genomics, Serena Ventures, Fortune, Starbucks Locations: New York, Zillow, Santa Barbara , California, Berkshire, Bluesky, London, Chicago

☆ Buy stocks in May because inflation is set to plunge through the rest of 2024, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

That's because inflation is set to fall "dramatically" through the rest of the year, Lee predicted. AdvertisementInvestors should be buying stocks this month, as inflation is bound for a steep decline for the rest of the year, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Real-time price declines will eventually catch up with the official inflation report. High rates risk tipping the economy into a recession and sparking market volatility, as investors, banks, and consumers grapple with a higher cost of borrowing. It is quite high, and as you know, it's putting a lot of pressure on regional banking ... the cost of money is quite high," Lee said.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, That's, it'll Organizations: Service, CNBC

☆ Inflation is scrambling Americans' perceptions of middle class life
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

For many in the middle class, inflation is at the heart of this feeling. That's making people feel locked out of many of the milestones long associated with middle-class life. 74% of middle class Americans have cut back on non-essential spending, according to Primerica's survey. 46% of middle-class Americans said they've dialed back or completely paused saving for the future and 38% said they didn't think they could afford an unexpected expense over $1000. Buying a home may be the greatest example of a tenet of middle-class life feeling out of reach for many, and that struggle is very real rather than merely negatively perceived.

Persons: —, Vincent, he'd, he's, Eoin Sheehan, Chris Collins, Collins, Jessica, they're, Kayla, Primerica, they've, Sheehan Organizations: Service, Business, Pew Research Center, Redfield & Wilton, Federal, Northwestern Mutual's Collins, Northwestern Mutual, Newsweek, National Association of Realtors Locations: Santa Barbara, California, Alabama, Primerica

☆ Trump Media stock tumbles as the SEC charges its auditor with 'massive fraud'
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Trump Media's stock price dropped on Friday after its auditor was accused of "massive fraud." The auditor BF Borgers did not comply with common accounting standards, the SEC said. BF Borgers CPA PC, which audited the financials of Trump Media, had "deliberate and systemic failures to comply" with public company accounting standards, the regulatory agency said. BF Borgers settled the SEC charges by paying a $12 million penalty, while Borgers, the owner, paid a separate $2 million penalty. "Trump Media looks forward to working with auditing partners in accordance with today's SEC order," a spokesperson for TMTG said.

Persons: BF, —, Benjamin Borgers, BF Borgers, Borgers, Ben Borgers, Gurbir Grewal, TMTG Organizations: Trump, SEC, Service, Trump Media, Securities and Exchange Commission Locations: SEC's

☆ Home prices aren't falling in the biggest metro areas for the first time in 2 years, Redfin says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Housing prices in the top 50 US cities have climbed higher or been flat for the first time since 2022. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementHome prices have stopped falling in America's biggest metropolitan areas for the first time in two years, according to Redfin. Home prices rose or stayed flat in 50 of the most populated US metro areas in April, the real estate listings site said in a report this week. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Redfin, — Organizations: Service, Business Locations: America's

☆ Here's why Americans having fewer kids won't doom the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

America's falling population isn't necessarily bad for the economy, Fisher Investments said. The US birth rate just fell to its lowest level in over 40 years, according to provisional CDC data. AdvertisementAmericans aren't having nearly as many kids as they used to, but that won't be the blow to the US economy that many have feared, according to Fisher Investments. Related storiesBut fewer babies being born isn't necessarily a bad thing for the economy, the firm said. "Yes, falling birth rates could have negative long-run ramifications if a true reduction in human capital and other factors don't offset this.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Fisher, Ken Fisher Organizations: Fisher Investments, Service, Centers for Disease, Bank

☆ The stock market's sell-off is over and the Fed gave 5 bullish signs to investors at its latest meeting, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The sell-off that battered stocks in April probably won't stretch into May, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market's sell-off could be over, and five bullish signals the Fed gave at its latest policy meeting are setting the stage for gains in May, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Investors are now pricing in a 69% chance the Fed could rate rates once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Stock investors have already perked up on a brighter outlook for Fed rate cuts this year. Stocks reacted positively to the Wednesday Fed meeting.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, Powell, presser, Stocks Organizations: Service, Markets, Fed, stagflation, Investors

☆ A contrarian stock market indicator is on the verge of flashing a 'buy' signal, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks are edging closer to a "buy" signal, according to BofA's contrarian market indicator. AdvertisementA contrarian indicator in the stock market is edging closer to a "buy" signal, according to Bank of America. The bank's Sell Side Indicator, a contrarian stock market gauge that flashes a bullish signal when investor sentiment is bearish, and vice versa, is now closer to a "buy" signal than a "sell" signal, strategists said in a note on Wednesday. The lower reading is a bullish sign for stocks, as the indicator is now just 3.3 percentage points away from flashing a "buy" reading, strategists said. Advertisement"The SSI has been a reliable contrarian indicator - in other words, it has been bullish when Wall Street was extremely bearish, and vice versa," the bank wrote.

Persons: —, Stagflation Organizations: Service, Bank of America, SSI

☆ Stock market today: US stocks fall ahead of Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The outlook for rate cuts this year continues to sour, with traders pricing in just one or two cuts by December. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders waited for the Federal Reserve to announce its next move on interest rates. Investors have also dialed back their outlook for rate cuts throughout the year. At Wednesday's meeting, market watchers expect Powell to formally confirm this shift from the FOMC, which had previously forecast three rate cuts this year," Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro said in a note.

Persons: Stocks, —, Richard Flynn, Charles Schwab, Powell, Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Open Markets, Traders

☆ Stock market today: Indexes mixed after Fed meeting as Powell calms nerves over possible hike
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Central bankers chose to keep interest rates steady, and Powell said a rate hike was "unlikely." Fed officials chose to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with the market's expectations. Investors have been fretting over higher interest rates as inflation came in hotter-than-expected throughout the first quarter. The odds of a Fed rate hike in June are less than 1%. Calling that out in the first paragraph is tantamount to saying that interest rate cuts are not coming soon."

Persons: Powell, —, Greg McBride, Bankrate, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Fed, Allianz Investment Management

☆ Live updates: Amazon to report quarterly earnings today after the market close
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

Amazon reports first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Investors will be looking for updates on the company's cloud-computing business, as well as plans for AI. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAmazon will report first-quarter earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell. Investors will be watching for updates on the company's cloud-computing business, as well as for insights into how Amazon plans to use artificial intelligence.

Persons: — Organizations: Service

☆ Trump 2.0 would be destructive for the economy, as the former president embraces 'crank' doctrine and economic fantasy, Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Blame the former president's "quack" economic policy and his tendency to deny reality, according to Nobel economist Paul Krugman. Similar "destructive" policies could be re-enacted in the US if Trump is re-elected in November, Krugman said. AdvertisementSome of Trump's economic policies during his presidency were flawed, Krugman said. If re-elected, Trump has said he plans on cracking down on immigration and imposing tariffs on US imports, especially those from China. "What's really worrisome, however, are indications that a future Trump regime would manipulate monetary policy in pursuit of short-run political advantage, justifying its actions with crank economic doctrines ...

Persons: —, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Trump, he's, that's, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business, Federal Reserve, Trump Locations: China, stoke

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